Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.536862 0.621025 0.713231 0.821635 0.945479 1.082436 1.245261
2025-06-08 0.379990 0.489949 0.622973 0.795228 1.011827 1.274570 1.616841
2025-06-15 0.322757 0.449879 0.614943 0.843805 1.151582 1.549664 2.101900
2025-06-22 0.259652 0.386555 0.561437 0.818158 1.183175 1.680896 2.407813
2025-06-29 0.213901 0.337469 0.516884 0.793713 1.206791 1.796272 2.696030
2025-07-06 0.180075 0.299457 0.481170 0.774384 1.231215 1.910053 2.987462
2025-07-13 0.161172 0.281006 0.471281 0.790818 1.308092 2.104702 3.413206
2025-07-20 0.150265 0.273529 0.476904 0.830998 1.424319 2.367781 3.965781
2025-07-27 0.138251 0.262220 0.474363 0.856573 1.518180 2.602371 4.492280
2025-08-03 0.125170 0.247037 0.463050 0.865236 1.583427 2.794609 4.964353
2025-08-10 0.112139 0.230023 0.446211 0.861683 1.626115 2.951181 5.387651
2025-08-17 0.099890 0.212740 0.426649 0.850537 1.653255 3.081895 5.775266
2025-08-24 0.089381 0.197711 0.410001 0.843817 1.689349 3.234279 6.220097
2025-08-31 0.077862 0.179028 0.384107 0.816475 1.684087 3.311929 6.537466
2025-09-07 0.075582 0.179595 0.396579 0.866259 1.832132 3.685070 7.434100
2025-09-14 0.066400 0.163660 0.373128 0.839965 1.826326 3.765440 7.779830
2025-09-21 0.058505 0.149463 0.351548 0.814904 1.819945 3.843091 8.125122
2025-09-28 0.051998 0.137549 0.333439 0.795088 1.822066 3.936894 8.508855
2025-10-05 0.048836 0.133299 0.332005 0.811937 1.903947 4.198648 9.253737
2025-10-12 0.047533 0.133527 0.340904 0.853128 2.042790 4.589008 10.294635
2025-10-19 0.045337 0.131134 0.343294 0.879346 2.150398 4.921550 11.238503
2025-10-26 0.042310 0.126091 0.338643 0.888226 2.219066 5.175409 12.032302
2025-11-02 0.038900 0.119490 0.329308 0.884585 2.257929 5.366494 12.702523